July 1, 2019
WISE ON THE MIDDLE EAST
Each week Robert L. Wise, Ph.D., explores the Middle Eastern situation,
ranging from Egypt through Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, Israel and the surrounding area. Wise first traveled to Israel and the neighboring countries in 1968. Two of his sons taught in Jordan and Lebanon universities. Wise presents an objective view of the behind the scenes situation in these countries.
THE SITUATION INSIDE IRAN
The Democratic Party Debates rather effectively captured the headlines this past week, but the serious situation in Iran continues to boil. Politicians in both countries exchanged barbs and insults like children calling each other names on the school ground. President Trump flew off to a G-20 summit and made insensitive jokes about Russia’s interference in the past election. However, there are no jokes inside Iran!
For the average Western citizen, it is difficult to figure out what the actually situation is inside Iran. One must survey a wide swipe of materials to develop an idea of what is actually going on. One of the best sources for information is the international reporting found in The New York Times. You don’t have to like their editorial positions to respect the accuracy of what they discover. Here’s what I’ve picked up from my sources that report from within Iran.
1. Iranian national leaders were furious and frustrated with the tactical commander who made the decision to shoot down the American drone. The public bravado of the Revolutionary Guard mask deeper worries about what the superiority of the American military might do to them. Such mistakes could inadvertently set off a “big time” shooting war.
2. The Revolutionary Guard runs its own independent business and political enterprises. They are the major hard-liners inside Iran. They see shooting down the drone has a victory for Iran. Trump can scream and shout, but the Iranian hard-liners think they won the first-round in the war.
3. Even with the US withdrawal from the nuclear treaty, Iran has avoided direct confrontations with American in the past months. When the Trump administration designed the Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization and increased sanctions on Iran, this posture change. Iranian now sees itself in economic warfare and declared the same by restarting their nuclear program.
4. The Iranian author Salar Abdoh reports that people on the streets of Tehran already see themselves at war with America. Sanctions have made fruit a luxury and factories are shutting down. The times are increasingly tough.
The previous Iranian ideology to operate as a self-sufficient military prowess is now seen by them as the better way to go. The question will soon be can they really take that road with their economy crumbling. US sanctions continue to take a huge toll on Iran.
So, what comes next from inside Iran? The hard-liners have been emboldened. Many experts do not believe the American cyberattacks will affect much and are seen as relatively unimportant. The crunch is the impact of American sanctions. They are highly effectively.
What’s next? Stay tuned.