Category Archives: America

IRAN, IRAN, AND IRAN

BLOG 443
September 9, 2019

iran

WISE ON THE MIDDLE EAST

Each week Robert L. Wise, Ph.D., explores the Middle Eastern situation, ranging from Egypt through Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, Israel and the surrounding area. Wise first traveled to Israel and the neighboring countries in 1968. Two of his sons taught in Jordan and Lebanon universities. Wise presents an objective view of the behind the scenes situation in these countries.

IRAN, IRAN, AND IRAN

Who’s the greatest threat to Israel in the Middle East? In a television interview, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, “Iran, Iran, and Iran.”

Netanyahu has been warning the world about Tehran’s global terrorists’ practices for a long time. Since the establishment of the Islamic Republic over 40 years ago, their expansion of frightening methods of terrorism have continually escalated. Even when the international community wasn’t slowed in reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran, Netanyahu continually warned of the dangers posed by this Islamic regime. Mossad agents struck and stole thousands of hidden Iranian documents that demonstrated that Iran was lying about having a limited approach to building atomic weapons. From the dealings of the Obama administration with Iran, one concludes that the USA did not take seriously enough the implications of these revealing documents.

For decades, Iran has viewed itself in a supreme contest with Israel. They have seen themselves as taking up the mantle of Gamal Abdel Nasser and pursuing this conflict in religious terms aligned with the Islamic Revolution. Nothing is more frightening and dangerous than a holy war. All restraints are cast aside, and the combatants kill in the name of God. Everyday citizens turn into fanatics, willing to cast their lives into the fire in the name of their god. Personal sacrifice is holy. This is the drum that the Ayatollah and his cronies have been continually beating.

Today Iran acts as if it believes there is no one to restrain them. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard cruises menacingly across the Strait of Hormoz while they shoot down a US Drone. They believe they have called President Trump’s bluff and scored a psychological victim over America. The danger in such exercises is a miscalculation on Iran’s part. Yes, the US could smash Iran, but an “accidental war” is the last thing the world needs.

America is currently rightfully pre-occupied with hurricanes and a stock market swinging like a gate. The average citizen is watching the Fall football games. All is well and good, but don’t take your eyes off Iran. The pot is boiling.

Iran has been playing with fire for a long time. The question before the Middle East today is, “who’s going to get burned?”

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PUTIN? PUNT!

BLOG 440
August 18, 2019

putins eyes

WISE ON THE MIDDLE EAST

Each week Robert L. Wise, Ph.D., explores the Middle Eastern situation, ranging from Egypt through Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, Israel and the surrounding area. Wise first traveled to Israel and the neighboring countries in 1968. Two of his sons taught in Jordan and Lebanon universities. Wise presents an objective view of the behind the scenes situation in these countries.

PUTIN? PUNT!

When asked why he trusted Vladimir Putin, George Bush said that he looked into his eyes and saw his soul. Probably the worst political statement ever made. If he’d looked again, he would have seen KGB beaming up from the depths of a cold soul. That’s the opinion of author Douglas E. Schoen in his just published book, Putin On the March, The Russian President’s Global Advance. (That’s my opinion also.)

Schoen advances insight into how Russia involved itself in Syria during the Civil War and is now aligned with Iran. Anyone interested in the future of the Middle East will do well to pay attention to Douglas Schoen’s insights.

Putin is different from ideological Communist rulers like a Lenin, Khrushchev, and Gorbachev. Rather, he is far more like Russian nationalists like Peter the Great and Catherine the Great. Schoen calls Putin a neo-Czarist. Having just completed a sixteen-session study of Russian history, I appreciate Schoen’s distinction. Putin typically functions like those Czarists of the past. He is a Russian opportunist down to his toenails.

An example of ignoring this mentality is one of President Obama’s worst mistakes. After threatening Syria for use of chemical weapons on its own people, when they did it again, Obama did nothing. He turned to Putin for assistance like talking to a friend. Putin promptly took Crimea, attacked the Ukraine and surged ahead in Syria. Putin saw an opportunity and seized the moment. Obama was left scratching his head.

Schoen strongly disagrees with President Trump’s approach to Putin, seeing the same naivete. When Trump joked with Putin about “not interfering” in our next election, the joke was on Trump.  Schoen believes America and its European allies must wage counter-cyber warfare against Putin. He will not retreat from Russia’s aggressive moves in the Middle East unless confronted with consequences. Left unchecked,  Schoen believes there is no limit to what Putin will attempt.

In recent blogs, I have detailed how Russian intervention increased the chaos and fighting in Syria. Assad would have fallen long ago if Putin hadn’t propped him up. The current conflict in Iran may well become another showcase.

What hope is there? Schoen believes it could come from the “better soul” of the Russian people themselves. Such was expressed in the great Russian writer Leo Tolstoy. Solzhenitsyn displayed the same in The Gulag Archipelago. The West should support and encourage these impulses in the days ahead. Needless to say, treating Putting like a “buddy” only opens the door to more serious consequences.

Anyone concerned for peace in the Middle East needs to listen and read Douglas Schoen.

You might find my book on near-death experiences important for you:
CROSSING THE THRESHOLD OF ETERNITY
Revell books

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WHAT’S HAPPENING WITH IRAN?

BLOG 438
July 29, 2019

middle east

WISE ON THE MIDDLE EAST

Each week Robert L. Wise, Ph.D., explores the Middle Eastern situation, ranging from Egypt through Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, Israel and the surrounding area. Wise first traveled to Israel and the neighboring countries in 1968. Two of his sons taught in Jordan and Lebanon universities. Wise presents an objective view of the behind the scenes situation in these countries.

WHAT’S HAPPENING WITH IRAN?

And by the way, after my last week’s blog on racism in Israel, an important statement appeared in The Jerusalem Post on the subject. Columnist Yaakov Katz wrote, “Another urgent step pertains to the racist culture within Israeli society. This must end through education.” We’ve been following an important story.

And now on to Iran and the current crisis. No one disputes that President Trump’s pulling out of the 2015 nuclear deal precipitated the current situation. Of course, that’s old news. Now where are we?

America has rushed in thousands of troops stationed in Saudi Arabia, an aircraft carrier capable of launching nuclear carrying B-52 bombers. On the other side Iran has stood behind attacks on oil freighters sailing through the Straits of Hurmuz as well as shooting down an American drone.

In response, Bibi Netanyahu noted that World War II emerged because Germany got away with taking similar “small steps” that no nation stopped. One step led to another step as the issues became progressively more serious. When Iran started enriching plutonium to a 3.67% level it was a change the world could live with. However, Netanyahu’s point was small steps were what eventually got the entire world in war.

What does the 3.67% level mean? That level of fissile material is well below the 20% level Iran was reaching when the treaty was signed. However, 20% is way lower than the 90% level required to make a nuclear weapon. Simon Henderson of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy said that if Iran was really serious about a bomb, they would have to return to raising enrichment to a 20% level for technical reasons.

So, what’s going on?

Everyone is posturing, flexing their muscles. American sanctions have put Iran in a horrific bind. The man on the street is struggling to survive. After Iran boarded a British ship, Britain joined the discussion about imposing sanctions. The Iranians also have the Saudis next door who would love to whack them big time. Consequently, Iranian current actions are saying, “you don’t frighten us.”

But they do.

I would suggest Iran is struggling for a better place at the table when discussions start again. Probably more provocations will follow. However, no one really wants a war which Iran knows they will lose.

Keep watching. More to come.

You might find my book on near-death experiences important for you:
CROSSING THE THRESHOLD OF ETERNITY
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THE ON-GOING STRUGGLE IN THE EAST

BLOG 436
July 15, 2019

iran (2)

WISE ON THE MIDDLE EAST

Each week Robert L. Wise, Ph.D., explores the Middle Eastern situation,
ranging from Egypt through Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, Israel and the surrounding area. Wise first traveled to Israel and the neighboring countries in 1968. Two of his sons taught in Jordan and Lebanon universities. Wise presents an objective view of the behind the scenes situation in these countries.

THE ON-GOING STRUGGLE IN THE EAST

Iran continues to enrich uranium and America increases the sanctions. Where’s it all going?

Of course, predictions about what’s happening inside Iran are difficult. Their society certainly doesn’t invite American newsmen to drop by for a story. However, some aspects are discernible.

Some years ago, I was in Damascus, Syria (where Western tourists did not go!) and sitting in a hotel eating breakfast. A group of tourists came filing in. One glance said they didn’t look like Arabs or the usual racial groups one sees on the streets in Damascus. I guessed they looked like Iranians. Everybody in the restaurant had already given me a second once over. My attire, haircut, countenance, screamed American and there usually wasn’t anyone around who looked like me.

In the center of the café (as well as the taxis, rest rooms, lobbies, you name it) were pictures of Hafez al-Assad and his son Bashar, the current despot. The impression was clear; the Assads are WATCHING YOU! Not exactly, the most comfortable place for an American to be.

I noticed one couple kept looking at me. I smiled; they smiled back. After a few minutes, they got up and came over to my table. I quickly learned they thought I was a Canadian. They confided that they were trying to get out of Iran and escape to Canada. They were sure I could help them.

Because I had once worked in Canada, I could answer many of their questions. Finally, I asked why they wanted out. The wife said firmly, “The leaders of our government are crazy. The country is ruled by religious lunatics.”

Her response revealed a sharp division in Iran that exists to this day. Groups like the Revolutionary Guard are fanatical extremists while many, many of the average citizens strongly disagree with them. Periodically, there is an explosion between the extremists and the ordinary citizens with revolting in the streets.

In the current situation with sanctions crippling Iran, this division continues to deepen. The average citizen knows that to oppose the government and the Supreme Ruler will bring imprisonment and probably death. On the other hand, the government realizes that a huge percent of the population does not agree with their race to build a nuclear weapon and start a war.

While no one is saying so, probably insiders in the American government are hoping that a revolution will follow before the Islamic extremist government yields.

Keep your eyes open. Who knows what’s coming next!

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THE SITUATION WITH IRAN

BLOG 432
June 17, 2019

Iran

WISE ON THE MIDDLE EAST

Each week Robert L. Wise, Ph.D., explores the Middle Eastern situation,
ranging from Egypt through Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, Israel and the surrounding area. Wise first traveled to Israel and the neighboring countries in 1968. Two of his sons taught in Jordan and Lebanon universities. Wise presents an objective view of the behind the scenes situation in these countries.

THE SITUATION WITH IRAN

Is the United States getting ready to go to war with Iran? Sounds like it.

Isn’t it amazing how often the Middle East pops up out of nowhere and dominates the headlines? Here we are again with battleships steaming toward the Straits of Hormuz and threats being shouted across the bow. Is war really on the horizon?

Recognizing that President Donald Trump is as predictable as a charging rhino and that he is willing to take rash actions to divert attention from his troubles at home makes predicting his responses unpredictable. At this point the idea of impeachment is more that idle talk. Consequently, the recent attacks on oil tankers raises important questions about what comes next.

However, the experts are not predicting a war. H.R. McMaster recently told The Jerusalem Post, “There are two ways of fighting America. One is symmetrically and the other is stupid.” He believes that the only way a country like Iran can fight America is through terrorism and insurgency.

Iran can huff and puff, but they know they can’t square off against the United States. For one thing, their current economy is in shambles. Secondly, the Sunni Saudis are standing at their borders with their guns raised and aimed at the Iranian Shi’ite. Not a good position to be in!

The Iranian Air Force relies heavily on jets sold to them by President Nixon and they now lack spare parts. Consequently, the American Air Force is in a position to overpower their air force, destroy their air fields, and do so at a minimal cost to American lives.

Probably that fleet of American battleships came sailing in more to send a message than start a fight.

American sanctions are breaking their back. The better option is to sit down and hammer out a new nuclear agreement that keeps everyone happy. The best option for them may well be to come out with new negotiations that insure their survival. A little cup of something is much better than a whole bucket of nothing.

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RECOGNITION OF THE GOLAN HEIGHTS

BLOG 427 April 8, 2019

WISE ON THE MIDDLE EAST ~ Each week Robert L. Wise, PhD explores the Middle Eastern situation, ranging from Egypt through Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, Israel and the surrounding area. Wise first traveled to Israel and the neighboring countries in 1968. Two of his sons taught in Jordan and Lebanon universities. Wise presents an objective view of the behind the scenes situation in these countries.

What about President Trump’s recent announced recognition of the Golan Heights belonging to Israel? Under international law Israel’s seizure and holding of the land is considered illegal. The Geneva Conventions consider settlements in such an area to be unlawful. So, what’s going on? Politics.

Israel’s election is tomorrow and Prime Minister Netanyahu needed an extra push at the polls. Trump gave him a significant push. This viewpoint is held by the Jewish residents of the Golan Heights. The March 31 edition of the Los Angles Times calls their perspective on the recognition “tepid.” The inhabitants of the Golan fear Trump’s public recognition will upset the apple-cart in what has been an extended period of peace in their history. Even though Syria and Israel have been mutually hostile, the Golan community has been left alone. They worry that while Netanyahu got a boost, they could end up getting the boot.

However, that’s only one part of the story.

Israelis firmly reject any hint of giving this area back because of their need for security. In the beginning, Syrians sat on these heights and shot farmers until Israel cleaned them out.

Give it back? They point to America acquiring California, New Mexico, and Texas. Would America give this land back to Mexico? Americans ready to give back land to the Indians? Absolutely not!

This past history reminds us that Israel is often squeezed to maintain a double standard in which the rest of the world wouldn’t participate.

The analogy makes the point.

A recent International Jerusalem Post editorial reminds us that Israel tried to negotiate some form of settlement over this area with Syria, but those attempts went nowhere. Since then Syria has slid into chaos and President Assad is an international pariah. No future there.

What did America lose through President Trump’s proclamation? Significantly, other Arab states will be more reluctant to negotiate with America. Moreover, the announcement is a gift to Assad, giving him a rallying point to gain more support for his beleaguered nation.  This result is part of the reason that Israeli residents are hesitant to be enthused about the move.

Nevertheless, the recognition is applauded by most Israelis.

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BETRAYAL IN THE MIDDLE EAST? Part III

BLOG 419 January 28, 2019

WISE ON THE MIDDLE EAST ~ Each week Robert L. Wise, PhD, explores the Middle Eastern situation, ranging from Egypt through Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, Israel and the surrounding area. Wise first traveled to Israel and the neighboring countries in 1968. Two of his sons taught in Jordan and Lebanon universities. Wise presents an objective view of the behind the scenes situation in these countries.

Last week I began with the statement. “Let’s face the facts. The enemy is Assad and the threat is Iran and Russia.  ISIS remains fighting and is not defeated.  In the following week there has been a flurry of activity supporting that reality.

Because of President Donald Trump’s arbitrary statement that the US was pulling out of Syria, frightening repercussions have followed. The Jerusalem Report magazine reported Trump saying he was giving a Christmas present to US troops. Reporter Yossi Melman said, “His decision is, in fact, a Christmas gift to US enemies and rivals, above all Russia and Iran, and indirectly China, and a bombshell dropped on Israel and the Sunni Arab world.”

Apparently, this is a gift that keeps on giving.

In the area of southern Syria, a new order is emerging. Assad is settling accounts with rebels who worked with Israel and Western countries during the rebellion. The central role in this surfacing new order has begun taken by Iran and its allies. Iran has begun to surface as the force behind the Assad throne. Without the stabilizing effect of US troops, the government has a free hand to do as it pleases. After announcing an amnesty to the rebels if they would “normalize their status,” the Syrian government has actually begun killing the former rebels that were promised pardon. The body of Ghanim al-Jamous, former head of the Syrian Police in the town of Dael was found on the roadside. Enough said?

Meanwhile, Senator Lindsay Graham flew to Turkey to meet with Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erodogan to quiet the flap in which Erodogan called Trump a traitor after the American president made conflicting promises to Erodogan. Graham is calling for a much, much slower withdrawal that is smarter than Trump’s announcement. Turkey had refused to allow security adviser John Bolton to come to Turkey because of his threats that Kurds would be protected by the US. During the visit Graham contradicted Trump’s statement that ISIS had been defeated. Senator Graham’s concern was that the entire situation could turn into another dangerous mess.

“Really? How big a mess do we already have in Syria? Sitting across the ocean, it is easy to pontificate about quick pull outs, etc.. It is an entirely different matter when you are in Israel or a Kurd or a former rebel that will now face certain death.

American politicians can debate whether the US should be there at all. However, we are. We can’t turn our backs on our responsibilities because it is politically expedient to do so.

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BETRAYAL IN THE MIDDLE EAST? Part II

BLOG 418 January 21, 2019

WISE ON THE MIDDLE EAST ~ Each week Robert L. Wise, PhD, explores the Middle Eastern situation, ranging from Egypt through Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, Israel and the surrounding area. Wise first traveled to Israel and the neighboring countries in 1968. Two of his sons taught in Jordan and Lebanon universities. Wise presents an objective view of the behind the scenes situation in these countries.

Last week I concluded with the statement. “Let’s face the facts. The enemy is Assad and the threat is Iran and Russia.  ISIS remains fighting and is not defeated.

One week later, the headlines in the media screamed, “Syria Attack kills 4 U.S. Citizens.” The suicide bombing killed at least 16 people. The Associated Press reported, “The strategic northeastern town of Manbij highlighted the threat posed by the Islamic State group despite Trump’s claims.” In seven days, the reports confirmed the fact that ISIS is far from dead.

The arbitrary and abrupt withdrawal of US troops has left the door open not only for more killing of American personnel, but for a power play that will further destabilize the region. Who is applauding the sudden retreat of the USA?  Russian and Iran.

The foregoing is not my opinion, but what allies and particularly Israel are currently saying.

What further complicates the situation are the divergent opinions expressed by National Security Adviser John Bolton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo trying to assure the Kurds and Israel that Trump didn’t really mean what he said. Yet, the most recent reports seem to indicate military equipment is  currently being withdrawn. Who knows what the reality of the situation actually is! The impression one receives is that informed leaders in the current administration are trying to temper Trump’s uninformed decision.

The immediate wild-card is Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erodgan. On December 14, 2018, President Trump said Erodgan assured him Turkey would not attack the Kurds. On December 17, 2018, Erodgan reiterated his threat to attack the Kurds. If that threat is carried out, one of America’s most faithful and consistent allies are open to an assault from the Turks.

Even though a NATO ally, Turkey has been on a path of authoritarianism and support for the Sunni faction of Islam. In addition, Erodgan has been deliberately increasing his ties with Russia. This situation makes Trump’s talk of withdrawal all the more ominous.

So, where are we? Not in a good place!

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BETRAYAL IN THE MIDDLE EAST?

BLOG 417 January 14, 2019

WISE ON THE MIDDLE EAST ~ Each week Robert L. Wise, PhD, explores the Middle Eastern situation, ranging from Egypt through Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, Israel and the surrounding area. Wise first traveled to Israel and the neighboring countries in 1968. Two of his sons taught in Jordan and Lebanon universities. Wise presents an objective view of the behind the scenes situation in these countries.

In these blogs, I attempt to express an objective analysis of the Middle East situation regardless of my personal political viewpoints. In these times of political chaos in America with the government shut-down, political parties locked in turmoil, and the stock market sliding because of the political instability, it is difficult to keep these elements out of the Middle Eastern war. Nevertheless, the following is what appears to be the reality of the situation.

President Donald Trump’s abrupt and totally unexpected decision to pull America out of Syria has brought more chaos to the region. After Secretary Rex Tillerson left office, he noted that Trump didn’t read much and paid little attention to memos. (He also called Trump a moron while in office) Unfortunately, it now appears Tillerson knew exactly what he was talking about. Trump’s ill-timed pronouncement has further deteriorated America’s role in creating stability in the region.

The problem began with President Obama drawing a red-line in Syria and then doing nothing when it was crossed. Obama’s lack of forceful leadership left the door open for the Russians and Iranians to rush up. The result was that Bashar Assad was not toppled and those two dictatorships were more entrenched than ever.

President Trump said he had assurances from Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that Turkey would not attack the Kurds. Now, Erdogan implies Trump is a traitor and said they would make no concessions in regard to the Kurds. During the Syrian civil war, the Kurds had been America’s firmest allies. Have they now been hung out to dry by both Trump and Erdogan?

Secretary of State Pompeo immediately spoke to assure the Kurds they would be safe after the US leaves. During this trip, Pompeo made an unscheduled stop in Iraq to attempt to quiet fears the Americas are abandoning the region and retreating from a fight with ISIS. Pompeo attempted to maintain America still stood with the Kurds.

Meanwhile, Security Advisor John Bolton was whisked off to Israel to attempt to quiet Israeli fears that the US was turning the ship around and running. Leaving the door wide open in Syria for Iranian advances caused Trump’s stock with Israel to drop lower than the decline in the American stock market!

The administration is suddenly hedging their bets saying any withdrawal will come slowly … and yet news reports say equipment is now being withdrawn. Really? Who is running this show?

Far from ending anything, Trump’s pronouncement has only further increased fear and vulnerability for Israel and other countries in the region.

Regardless of what promises Trump campaigned on, an American President is expected to make decisions on the current conditions and not abandon world leadership simply because attention needs to be diverted away from their own personal scandals.

Let’s face the facts. The enemy is Assad and the threat is Iran. ISIS remains fighting and is not defeated.

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THE AMAZING IRON DOME

BLOG 407 October 22, 2018 ~ WISE ON THE MIDDLE EAST ~ 

Each week Robert L. Wise, PhD, explores the Middle Eastern situation, ranging from Egypt through Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, Israel and the surrounding area. Wise first traveled to Israel and the neighboring countries in 1968. Two of his sons taught in Jordan and Lebanon universities. Wise presents an objective view of the behind the scenes situation in these countries.

Anyone who follows the Middle East situation has heard of the Iron Dome. The system has proven to be an extraordinary defense against rocket attacks because it shoots down rockets while they are flying through the air. Here’s some additional information I think you’ll find interesting.

In 2006, Hezbollah terrorists in Lebanon started firing rockets into North Israel. In five weeks they fired 4,000 rockets. About a fourth of these landed in highly populated areas. They would obviously get better with time and something had to be done.

Chanoch and Ditz Levin had just moved from the USA to Israel. Levin had been employed working with explosive devices and knew how to approach the problem. However, he had to first convince the Israeli government that he could handle the job. Moreover, he was given a limited amount of time and money to work on the project. The project had to cost less than $100, 000 and be ready in 30 months.

American defense contractors offered various products that might do the job, but they were turned down. Levin’s idea was to build interceptor missiles that could track and destroy incoming rockets. Interception was particularly tricky has it had to occur in microseconds when the enemy rocket was coming head-to-head. A team was assembled including 25-year old Tzipi. Her engineer’s job was to crawl into the launching tubes for electronic hook-up purposes. The workers had to make sure she was out of the shoots before they left at night.

On April 7, 2011 at the first trial of Levin’s invention, the rockets didn’t fire. A careful analysis revealed two wires had been wrongly placed. Once corrected, the Iron Dome device fired. They were on their way! On August 20, 2011, Hamas fired 11 missiles simultaneously at the city of Beersheba. The Iron Dome intercepted most of them. Since then the rate of success has only increased.  What Chanoch and Levin invented has spawned other highly similar devices that intercept rockets.

While not technologically perfect, the Iron Dome system has taken away from Hamas and Hezbollah one of their key weapons and their ability to create bloodshed. The Israeli army can relax when the enemy starts firing rockets and the Air Force doesn’t have to attack the terrorist’s launchers. When Iran’s Revolutionary Guard fired rockets from Syria, the system shot them down.

Israel has achieved an international reputation for creating electronic devices. For example, the USB “flash drive” now used everywhere in computers was invented in Israel. However, the Iron Dome stands at the top of the list for stopping destruction and saving lives.

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