Category Archives: Turkey

June 19, 2022 · 11:27 pm

ISRAELIS HIDE IN ISTANBUL 

BLOG 570

June 20, 2022

WISE ON THE MIDDLE EAST

Having traveled and worked in the Middle East since l968, Robert L. Wise has journeyed through the region, giving him insights from behind the scenes. Two of his sons taught in Jordan and Lebanon. Each week he attempts to present an objective view of current events.

ISRAELIS HIDE IN ISTANBUL     

Middle East terrorism takes many forms. One of the more alarming expressions occurred in Turkey this past week. Israelis were running for cover as Iranian agents roamed the streets looking for them. Here’s the story.

Friday’s warnings came a day after Israel’s National Security Council issued rare, specific instructions to Israelis in Turkey, telling them not to open their hotel room doors for delivery people, not to post about their travel plans on social media, and not to go to the same tourist traps that other Israelis often visit.

On Monday, the National Security Council raised the warning level for travel to Istanbul to its highest level, putting it alongside Iraq, Yemen, Afghanistan and Iran as places that Israelis must leave immediately and may not visit.

Tensions between Israel and Iran have intensified in recent weeks, after the assassination of a top Iranian officer in Tehran last month, a number of other deaths of security personnel inside Iran, airstrikes against Iran-linked targets in Syria, threatening rhetoric from Iranian leaders and Iran’s increasing violations of nuclear agreements.

The latest warnings came after a week in which Israel has urged its citizens in Turkey to immediately return home, and issued its highest possible security warning for Istanbul, over concerns that Iranian agents are planning to kill or kidnap Israelis. The warnings came amid unverified reports in the press that Israeli and Turkish intelligence had together already thwarted several planned attacks by a broad network of Iranian agents, nabbing some of the suspects.

It is currently believed to be some 2,000 Israelis in Turkey.

Israeli media cited unnamed officials who said that Israeli agents were in Turkey working shoulder to shoulder with their Turkish counterparts in an effort to thwart the attacks, noting that there was excellent cooperation with local officials. There is a “manhunt right now in the streets of Istanbul to stop an incident that has already gotten underway,” the report said. “Being in Istanbul right now for an Israeli is akin to playing Russian roulette, tempting fate. If we could publicize the full operational picture, Israelis would be fleeing as they would a fire,” a senior official was reported as saying.

The Middle East remains dangerous for anyone who stumbles into one of these hot spots. Hopefully, there will be no explosive instances in the next few days.

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February 13, 2022 · 8:46 pm

ESPIONAGE!

BLOG 553

February  14, 2022

WISE ON THE MIDDLE EAST

Having traveled and worked in the Middle East since l968,  Robert L. Wise has journeyed through the region, giving him insights from behind the scenes. Two of his sons taught in Jordan and Lebanon. Each week he attempts to present an objective view of current events.

ESPIONAGE!

If you like intrigue and mystery, you’ll find this Middle East episode up your alley. Certainly, gives us insight into how terrorism operates in situations that never make the media’s front page. The story just surface this past week.

Turkish intelligence thwarted an Iranian plan to assassinate an Israeli businessman in the country, according to Turkish media. The intended target, Yair Geller, confirmed the reports. “I know for certain they want to kill me,” Geller said. Authorities led an operation in recent days to arrest eight suspects in the case, according to the Sabah newspaper and many other media outlets.

Turkish reports said an Iranian spy cell comprised of nine operatives. Yair Geller, an Israeli-Turkish businessman who lives in Istanbul and owns an engineering company specializing in aerospace technology. The planned hit was to be a retaliation for the killing of Iranian nuclear chief Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in 2020, widely attributed to Israel’s Mossad, the reports said, as well as a means to hinder warming relations between Ankara and Jerusalem.

The reports confirmed the hit squad followed Geller to his home and workplace and was planning to use Turkish citizens to carry out the assassination. Unbeknownst to the spies, they were being watched themselves, by Turkish agents. Once they determined that assassination preparations were underway, they shared the information with Mossad. Geller was then transferred to a safe house, with Mossad actively aiding in his protection. He was invited to move to Israel for safety but declined.

The leader of the cell in Turkey was identified as Iranian Moshtagh Bighouz. A ninth person, the squad’s leader in Iran, was named as Iranian intelligence officer Yasin Taheremamkendi.

Geller did not know why he was targeted. “I cannot speak freely and I know for certain they want to kill me,” he said. “If I go into detail on the matter, I could cause significant damage to the country, but it’s completely true.”

In November, Cypriot authorities filed charges against six suspects for allegedly planning to attack Israeli targets on the eastern Mediterranean island. Israel reported the cell had been sent by Iran to assassinate billionaire Teddy Sagi, and possibly others. Among those charged was Orkhan Asadov, a 38-year-old Azerbaijani national. He and three Pakistanis indicted in the case were accused of plotting to visit Cyprus to commit acts of terror. All but one of the suspects allegedly planned to kill five Israelis who live in Cyprus.

There you have it. An old-Fashioned James Bond story. Never can tell what will come next.

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July 26, 2020 · 9:55 pm

A NEW THREAT

BLOG 480
July 27 2020

war

WISE ON THE MIDDLE EAST

Each week Robert L. Wise, Ph.D., explores the Middle Eastern situation, ranging from Egypt through Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, Israel and the surrounding area. Wise first traveled to Israel and the neighboring countries in 1968. Two of his sons taught in Jordan and Lebanon universities. Wise presents an objective view of the behind the scenes situation in these countries.

A NEW THREAT

The American press apparently has not touched an important news story brewing in the Middle East because the covid virus has captured the attention of the public and press. However, a new and possible dangerous situation that continues to brew in the Middle East with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stoking the fire.

The Turkish Ottoman Empire was crushed in World War I. Before that defeat, Turkey had virtually ruled the region including what is today Israel. The Muslim Empire practiced genocide on a million and a half Armenians and were known for their brutality. World War I broke their hold on the Middle East and the British gained control of Palestine. Eventually the Arabs formed countries like Saudi Arabia and Jordan.

Now Erdogan appears to be attempting to revive the past. Questions are now being raised about whether Turkey and Egypt could be headed for a war in Libya. In recent months, Turkey has increased its military intervention in Libya. They are supporting the Tripoli government’s side of a civil war. The Libyan conflict is complex but has implications for which power will gain dominance in the region. Egypt, Turkey,Qatar and even Russia have their eye on the outcome.

Erdogan’s interest is also on increasing Turkey’s statues in the Arab Muslim world. The Turkish President has always tilted toward the Muslim Brotherhood. In recent years, Turkey has also played hardball with Israel probably to gain favor in the Arab world. In contrast, Egypt’s leader General Abdel Fatah al-Sisis kicked the Muslim Brotherhood out of the country back in 2013. Egypt is not likely to be tolerant of Erodgan’s aggressive actions.

One view held in America is that one day Turkey may turn to Iran or Russia. The idea is that the US must give concessions to Turkey to turn them away from Moscow and Tehran. The issue may end with Cairo’s influence. They currently have a military present in Libya. At this point the kettle is only starting to boil, but the water is hot.

Pay attention to what Turkey is up to. It may well have repercussions for the entire Middle East.

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October 20, 2019 · 8:28 pm

HOW TO DESTROY YOUR INFLUENCE

BLOG 448
October 21, 2019

fake news

WISE ON THE MIDDLE EAST

Each week Robert L. Wise, Ph.D., explores the Middle Eastern situation, ranging from Egypt through Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, Israel and the surrounding area. Wise first traveled to Israel and the neighboring countries in 1968. Two of his sons taught in Jordan and Lebanon universities. Wise presents an objective view of the behind the scenes situation in these countries.

HOW TO DESTROY YOUR INFLUENCE

This past week America seriously demolished its leadership role in the Middle East.

US President Donald Trump’s newly announced withdrawal of nearly all US troops from northern Syria has cemented Russia’s status as the predominant global military power actively engaged in the Middle East. This week, Russian troops arrived at military bases in northern Syria that the American army had hastily left just days earlier, in what can be regarded as both a literal and figurative handover of regional leadership and authority.

My opinion? No, this come straight out of The Times of Israel newspaper!

Many officials in Jerusalem are deeply worried about being abandoned by their superpower ally, as the American decision to gradually disengage from this part of the world which started under former US president Barack Obama when he drew a red line and then demonstrated that he didn’t mean what he said. The follow-up acts by Trump threaten to embolden Israel’s enemies: Iran and its allies and proxies in Lebanon, Syria, Gaza and elsewhere.

What does Russia’s takeover really mean for Israel? Some analysts are deeply concerned, fretting about the possibility that Moscow could use surface-to-air missiles against Israeli jets attacking Iranian targets in Syria, which would effectively end Jerusalem’s campaign against Tehran’s establishment of a military foothold near Israel’s border.

Amos Yadlin, the head of Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies, told The Times of Israel he counts eight main reasons that motivated Russian President Vladimir Putin to get involved in the Middle East:

1.To Make Russia Great Again;

2. To again become an influential power, after the US kept it out of Egypt (1973), Iraq (2003), Libya (2011) and the Israeli-Palestinian peace process;

3. To reduce the influence of the United States;

4. To play Middle Eastern cards in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine;

5. To control ports and air bases, something the tsars dreamed of;

6. To try out weapons developed by Russia in the past decade;

7. To save Syria’s Bashar Assad — and show the world that Russians don’t throw
their allies under the bus.

8. To fight jihadists — in Syria and not in the Caucasus.

Sound scary? Ask the Kurds who were abandoned this week and without the American cover who have been slaughtered by the Turks. Today the media inside Israel is telling the story. Israelis are genuinely worried. Even stupid decisions can have serious consequences.

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November 27, 2017 · 7:23 pm

A NEW STRUGGLE IN THE MIDDLE EAST

BLOG 373 November 27, 2017

If you follow the news, this item was probably on the back page (if at all unfortunately), but the story remains important for the future. The Kurds have been an item during the struggles in Iraq from the beginning. During the civil wars, Kurds have proven to be the best fighters. In contrast to the large array of groups supposedly fighting ISIS that ended up shooting each other, the Kurds stayed on target with women fighting alongside the men. The big news is the Kurds Regional Government conducted an independence referendum on September 25 in which the citizens overwhelmingly voted for independence.

Kurdish territory is adjacent to southern Turkey and in the northwestern sector of Iran as well as northern Syria. Their language is a sub-group from the Iranian language. The Kurds believe they descended from an ancient Iranian people dating back at least to 612 BCE when Nineveh was the capitol. Kurdish nationalism emerged after World War I with the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire.

With Iran, Russia, and Syria (as well as the USA to some extent) caught up in a struggle in the region, Kurdish interests have become much more significant. Hezbollah also has a part in conflict, having recently said that Kurdish independence would be a victory for the USA and Israel. For decades, Israel supported Kurdish aspirations. Should Kurdish hopes be diminished or defeated, Iran would feel emboldened. The truth is that the Kurdish region plays a key role in stabilizing Iraq. On the other hand, Turkey does not want to see the Kurds become independent and break off politically and geographically from their country. Consequently, the powers in the Middle East are divided over what to do with Kurds attempting to rise above the vested interest and seek their own path.

Vacillations by the United States have greatly reduced American influence. President Obama virtually stepped out of the region opening the door for unparalleled Russian involvement. No one is sure what President Trump will do because Trump probably still has no idea what he will do. Washington certainly doesn’t want another crisis in the Middle East or in Iraq, but unless it acts quickly, Iranian meddling and arrogance will only escalate.

Keep your eyes on the Kurds. There’s much more to come. 

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May 1, 2017 · 12:39 pm

UPDATING ARMENIAN GENOCIDE

BLOG 348 May 1, 2017

            Some years ago, I was researching my genealogical background and spent time in the Armenian Sector of the old city of Jerusalem where I became acquainted with a number of friends. April 24, (this past week) commemorated the day the Turks started rounding-up Armenian high ranking citizens living in Istanbul. The horror story grows from there.

This experience from the past is now on the big screen. THE PROMISE tells the story of the Ottoman Turks attempt to wipe out the Armenians, living in the easternmost part of present day Turkey. The movie is powerful, factual, and will touch your heart. The account is based on a true story.

I recommend the film because so few contemporaries understand what happened to 1.5 million Armenians who were systematically murdered by the collapsing Ottoman Turkish Empire as World War I began. The Turks claim they feared the Armenians would join the Russians and were traitors to Turkey. Though not true, the idea is still promoted in the Turkish school system. The Turkish government has denied their official role in murdering the Armenians and to this day refuse to admit what they did. Even two years ago, when Pope Frances called the killings genocide, the Turkish government screamed and said there was no such proof.

There is.

A Turkish historian at Clark University, Taner Akcam has recently found “the smoking gun.” Taner’s academic interest has been in genocide and how it was used in World War I. By rummaging through boxes of documents stored in the Armenian Library in Jerusalem, he found a 1915 telegram from an official in the Turkish city of Erzurum sent in a secret code asking for details on the killings of Armenians. The deciphered telegram helped convict an official. Akcam believes what he has found the path that will allow many other documents to be uncovered, further verifying the past. As Turkey prepared to size their country, in 1922, Armenian leadership shipped 24 boxes of court records to England to keep them from being confiscated. In turn, those documents were sent to the Armenian Library in Jerusalem where Akcam did research. History professor at the City College of New York and an expert on the Armenian genocide, Eric Weitz called Taner Akcam the “Sherlock Holmes of Armenian genocide.”

Many countries such as France, Germany, and Greece have acknowledged what Turkey did. Of course, the Turks scream each time their role in the killings is proclaimed. The United States has not officially recognized Turkey’s brutal acts. President Obama used the term genocide when he was a candidate, but not while in office. Dozens of congressional leaders signed a letter asking President Trump to publically recognize the systematic murders. They doubt if he will do so.

Akcam recognizes that the past is never pasted in the Middle East. Reports of diplomats, missionaries, and journalist who witnessed these events have long existed, but are ignored by Turkish officials. Will the government officials now change their minds? Akcam doesn’t expect that to happen, but he believes that human rights can only be established by acknowledging the path.

Let’s hope that just re-elected Turkish leader Erdogan will wake up. If not, the rest of the world is certainly coming out of the shadows and remembering the past for what it was.

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March 8, 2016 · 9:09 pm

THE RESHUFFLING CONTINUES

BLOG 293 March 7, 2016

Last week we considered how the Middle East situation has gone through a radical reordering that has changed what came out of the geographic shape from the past. One of the countries not considered offers another interesting reflection of change: Turkey.

Most Westerners pay little attention to Turkey. Since the fall of the Ottoman Empire and the conclusion of World War I, Turkey has not been particularly significant. However, Turkish President Recap Tanya Endogen has been hard at work lately to reverse that standing. In previous blogs, I have detailed some of his efforts to establish a Muslim axis running from Turkey through Syria down to Iran. Turkey became fast friends with President Bashar el-Assad. Erdogan had visions of setting himself up as the Grand Caliphate of that Muslim area . Sorry. The fact is that Erdogan’s efforts have all failed.

Why should a Westerner care about Turkey? Putting its past history aside, the gyrations of Turkey have created significant problems. In an unprecedented ploy and without warning, Turkey exposed Israeli Mossad agents while trying to build his Muslim Axis. In addition, during the spring of 2010, the Mavi Marmara affair was an attempt by Turkey to break the Israeli blockade on Gaza. As a result nine Turks were killed. Erdogan was seriously discredited in Israel and lost footing in his Middle East pursuits as well.

Today, Erdogan sees Assad as Turkey’s worst enemy. With Russia entering the Syrian civil war, Russia is not only on the bad guy list but is now positioned to strike the underbelly of Turkey. Turkey is now confronted by what it sees as “Imperialist” Russia and shot down one of their airplanes . Sanctions followed. As the Russians change the balance of power in the war, Tehran is becoming on the winning side and Turkey on the losing. Erdogan’s aces have turned into deuces.

To make matters even more difficult, the United States appears to have abandoned their efforts and turned civil the war over to Russia while the USA backs the Kurds. Turkey particularly fears a resurgence of the Kurds on their border may result in a new state after the Syrian war. The Kurdish insurgency is another big headache for Erdogan.

In other words, Turkey is in a BIG mess. Who could profit from such a quagmire?

Surprisingly enough, the answer is Israel.

Erdogen’s anti-Israel assaults never brought the result for which he had hoped. A dry run there. Moscow had been Turkey’s supplier of gas but that source is no longer trustworthy. Israel can sell gas to Turkey. Interesting possibility.

As painful as it probably will be, Israel may be Turkey’s only open door.

Watch for a new hand to be dealt. Stay tuned.

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November 30, 2015 · 7:32 pm

TURKEY – RUSSIA- AND THE MIDDLE EAST

BLOG 281 November 30, 2015

Last Tuesday Turkey shot down a Russian warplane after repeated warnings to stop violating Turkish airspace. Russia screamed, but NATO’s Secretary-General immediately said that the military organization stood firmly behind its ally Turkey and supported its territorial integrity. Turkey didn’t back off on the charge of Russia’s violation of their air space and no apologies were forthcoming.

A visibly angry Putin warned “significant consequences” would follow. Subsequently, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced Russia was suspending its visa-fee travel restrictions with Turkey which struck a blow at Turkey’s tourism industry. Around 3.3 million Russian’s visited Turkey last year. Russian tourists were warned not to travel to Turkey. However, the Russian response is measured and would not effect gas exports to Turkey. Russia would again be the big loser there.

What’s going on?

Putin has been trying to muscle his way into the Middle East for sometime, Syria has been an ally and he’s trying to protect Assad. When there were no apologies, Putin had to react and look tough to protect the image he is trying to project. Turkey stood up to him and that diminishes the appearance Putin is trying to promote.

The truth is that the Russian economy remains troubled and the reduction in the price of petroleum has pushed them further into a hole. Putin growls but his roar is actually weak.

And Turkey? What’s happening there?

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also likes to flex his muscles. Intolerant of dissent, his office is known for being heavy-handed. In previous blogs, I’ve described Muslim Erdogan’s desire to create a Sunni Axis running form Turkey through Syria down to Iran that would cut off Saudi Arabia and any other Shia countries. Currently, the president is also concerned that the Kurds might come out of the Syrian civil war with there own country that would border Turkey. In an attempt to elevate Turkey’s status with the Muslim world, Erdogan cut off Israel’s intelligence gathering capacities that ran through Turkey for decades. With a clap of the hands, he turned Turkey’s old ally Israel away.

So, what’s Erdogan up to? He is demonstrating that Russia doesn’t frighten him and he can dish out retaliation with the best of them. When Russia pushes him, Erdogan pushes back maybe even a little harder. The War rumbles on.

The squabble between Russia and Turkey is a side show. The problem with the Syrian civil war is that it has become like the Spanish civil war that preceded World War II. Syrian’s civil war is actually pitting Saudi Arabia against Iran with Russia on Iran’s side and American with the Saudi’s. No one will say this out loud but Russia’s recent involvement in the war is another side show with everyone claiming that ISIS is the problem. No question that ISIS is a big, big issue but the entrenched position of Syria’s current government only sustains ISIS on the battlefield.

The politicians keep jaw-boning and the bombs keep flying. Why won’t it stop? Because all the participants are more concerned for their self-interest and appearance than they are for the well-being of a beleaguered Syria filled with dying people, the war continues..

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August 24, 2015 · 8:16 pm

HOW ABOUT A LITTLE TURKEY?

BLOG 267 August 24, 2015

When you say “turkey,” Americans think of the Thanksgiving Holidays. In the Middle East, Turkey means a nation that was once the Ottoman Empire stretching back to 1299 when it all started. The Ottoman Empire reached across Southeast Europe, Western Asia, North Africa and held what today is called the Holy Land. The Turks were Muslims and are remembered for the systematic extermination of 1.5 million Armenians. (And that’s one reason we should pay attention to what they are doing.) The Ottoman Empire began to disintegrated with World War I and lost the Palestinian region to the British.

Periodically, I have written about the current President Recep Toyyip Erdogan and his ambitious attempts to restore the Ottoman Empire because the West needs to be aware of what his intentions are. Most recently, Erdogan granted the United States the right to use the Incirlik base in Turkey for air strikes against ISIS. The Allies were moved dramatically closer to hitting ISIS.

Erodogan didn’t make this shift because he’s a nice guy nor was the issue fighting ISIS. He would certainly be delighted to see Assad fall, but Erodogan does only what serves Erodogan’s purposes and saving Syria isn’t in the cards.

Erodogan’s grant of a Turkish base for the war is only a cover for his actual purpose The goal is to attack the Kurds.

The Kurds have proven to be valiant fighters and made some of the most important gains during  the civil war in Syria. Their success gained important attention in the West and new backing from the Allies. Kurdish victories united several areas along the Syrian-Turkish border. They are no longer a forgotten minority.

Kurdish success worries Erdogan.

If the Kurds continue their military success, they could gain control of a 500 mile stretch of the border with Turkey. What worries Erdogan is the possibility of the emergence of a Kurdish controlled country along his border.

At this time, American air power and the Kurds have driven ISIS back to the east and south. Erdogan apparently wants to use his air force with the Sunni Islamist rebels in Aleppo to destroy the ISIS stronghold between Jarabulus and Marea. The goal is to remove ISIS control of all territories along the border and replace them with groups favorable to Turkey before the Kurds take the area.1

Observers on the scene report that Erdogan probably has a much larger personal objective. He is working hard to gain a parliamentary majority so he can push the country toward a Muslim caliphate-dominated government. If he gains that edge, he will undoubtedly attempt to change the constitution and give his office more power.

Turkey has had a significant secular population that has so far rejected attempts to turn the state into a Muslim religion dominated country. Erdogan continues to press for a reversal of this situation.

Make no mistake about it. Erdogan does what suits Erdogan best – and nobody else.

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January 18, 2014 · 7:57 pm

THE LATEST FROM THE WAR FRONT

            Sad to start a new year’s blog on the Middle East by calling the area a battle scene. Unfortunately, much of the area is locked in conflict. Even since the revolutionary “Arab Spring” exploded, chaos has swept the entire region. Syria remains a primary target with thousands being killed. Many Syrians recently poured out of their Friday services in Mosques angrily denouncing an Al-Qaida linked group that they believe derailed the revolution. The in-fighting among the opponents of Bashar Assad has greatly helped his regime endure. It still remains unclear who will attend possible peace talks this year. Rebels are proclaiming they will not attend. Western nations may end up talking to each other and accomplishing nothing.

            Egypt appears to be on a more stable path. Still, deadly clashes continue to explode in the streets. Just two weeks ahead of the national referendum on an amended constitution, a confrontation between Islamist protestors and government forces left 17 dead with 62 injured in the violence. Police arrested 258 protesters and confiscated homemade bombs, firearms, and Molotov cocktails. The crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood continues with the organization becoming nearly non-existent.

In my New Year’s predictions, I suggested that General Abul-Fattah el-Sisi would be elected the next president of Egypt. This week’s inside report seems to confirm that direction. The majority of the Egyptian people have tired of conflict and are ready to return to the military style leadership they have known in the past. Tourism is virtually dead and that economically hurts many, many citizens.

The next hurdle for the Egyptian public is the approval of the new constitution. General Sisi has linked his political future to this referendum in an effort to insure a significant vote for the document. Sisi noted “we work in a democracy” which has been interpreted to indicate he wants to be swept into power by the plebiscite rather simply taking the office through his military control. He appears well on his way to doing so. All reports indicate Egyptian voters do not want the creation of an Islamist state in Egypt.

Last year I released an unusual blog indicating that Turkey and Iran have been working on some sort of an alliance while Turkey radically betrayed Israel and turned their back on the Jews. A story in this week’s International edition of the New York Times indicated that Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan may not have the country in his hip pocket as he thought and could be heading for trouble. While the Turks have always put a clamp on freedom of the press, Erogan appears to be losing his grip. The media refuses to be intimidated and the internet is out of his control. Government pressure on journalists and the media is not stopping stories on a corruption scandal in his government. Media that once supported Erdogan have recently turned on him.

In a desperate attempt to avoid facing the scandal, Erdogan has accused the United States and Israel for his problems. When dictators start behaving in this fashion, it has usually been a certain sign that their regime is in trouble. Possibly the idea of a Turkey-Iran alliance could be a casualty in this conflict. Just another one of those interesting possible turn of events to watch in 2014.

Keep your eyes open and stay turned. More to come.

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