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BLOG 319 September 19, 2016

The latest from Syria seems to suggest that the fragile four day cease-fire is holding. Fighting did erupt east of Damascus and around the besieged northern city of Aleppo. Rebel forces sparred with Syrian troops over territory around Jabra in the Ghouta area. However, American and Russian diplomats agreed not to let the agreement expire. An usual bit of good news indeed!

Some what of a surprise for the Middle East, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry publically stated that Israel’s actions again Palestinians do not constitute terrorism. He noted there is no evidence to connect Israel to any terrorist organization. Because of the struggles throughout their history, Israel must tighten control their territory as well as border crossings.

Of course, this comment from an Arab government did not sit well with the Hamas terrorist group. Husam Badran, a Hamas spokesperson, said, “He who does not see the crimes of the Zionist occupation as terrorism is blind.” No surprise in that response.

Shoukry’s comments indicate a growing willingness in Egypt for a stronger relationship with Israel.

In the West Bank, politics is starting to heat up. Eighty-one-year old PLO President Mahmoud Abbas has been in office 11 years (in a four-year presidential term) following the death of Yasser Arafat. Because he has judiciously avoided naming a successor, the stage is now set for intense competition for his office and may end in all out violence. Reporting from Ramallah, the West Bank, Ben Lynfield reports that Abbas is widely criticized in Palestinian society for being too accommodating to Israel. On the other hand, Abbas is leading what would be a bankrupt government if it would not for outside financial support. One of the main contenders for office is Marwan Barghouti who is currently serving in Israel five life sentence for murder. Shehadeh Dahlan is another possible contender in a crowded field of hopefuls, including Fatah leader Saeb Erekat. All names worth remembering.

The lack of an election is an outgrowth of the struggle of Fatah with Hamas over the seizure of the Gaza Strip in 2007. Because Abbas won’t name a successor, the possibility of a free for all battle looms on the horizon.

Meanwhile, Hezbollah now centered in Lebanon is having money troubles. Tightening US sanctions have put the squeeze on their finances. The United States passed a law requiring banks not to do business with the Shi’ite political group. Promoted by President Obama and called “The Hezbollah International Financing Prevention Act of 2015,” it has caused banks all over the world to retreat from the terrorist group. U.S. acting under secretary Adam Szubin of the U.S. Treasury Department said, “the group is in its worst financial shape in decades.” Lebanese banks will not even open accounts to members of parliament and members of Hezbollah families. The screws are tightening.

Is it possible that the pressures for war are lessening? Let’s hope so.

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STORIES 1

BOOKS YOU’LL LOVE: THE STORY BEHIND THE STORIES

“And why did you write that book?”
Authors hear that question everyday. “What’s hidden within the folds of the story? What secrets created the tale you’re telling?” When the book is non-fiction, the riddle may even be more intriguing. During the decades that I wrote my 32 published books, these are the back pages behind the headline episodes. Here are the fascinating scenes behind the big picture.

Hope you like them.

THE ASSASSINS

Just released on Nook and Kindle as well as in ebook form, The Assassins grew out of time I spent in Russia back in the ‘80s. The Soviet Union was certainly waning and change was in the air. Later, I saw a picture of Vladimir Putin dressed as a tourists taking a picture of Ronald Regan on visit to Russia. Clearly, Putin standing there with his little camera looked like any tourists, happening on to an important state visitor. Obviously, he was not.

THE SYRIAN KILLING MACHINE

            Before dawn, gunmen walked into a Damascus apartment complex in the suburb of Jaramana and found their way to the fifth floor. Once they located the right unit, they banged on door. The door opened slowly. A dozy occupant stuck his head around the corner. Gunfire echoed across the complex. The police commander living in the apartment had been fighting the resistance. Before he could speak, the resistance gunmen shot him to death and fled.

Local observers now report opponents of Syrian President Bashar Assad appear to be assassinating loyalist military officers in an attempt to bring down the government. Ten senior officers, including several generals, have been gunned down in the past three months. No one can determine if the slayings are carried out by rogue elements or are a rebel strategy.

At the same time, the U.N.’s political chief noted the Syrian government has failed to implement any aspect of the peace plan Assad said they had accepted. Political chief B. Lynn Pascoe reported to the Security Council that the Syrian government remains at war. To punish the people of Hama for welcoming U.N. monitors,  government troop drove through neighborhoods firing automatic weapons and killing at least 32 people.

During the week of April 22, France raised the prospect of their military intervention in the Syrian crises. The French asserted that harsher measures should be considered as it appears the U.N. peace plan is on the verge of collapse. The problem remains that any military action proposed through the U.N. will be blocked by Russia and China. (This issue was discussed in a previous blog). At the same time, Western forces appear to not want to enter another Middle Eastern turmoil. The result? Stalement.

Some years ago, I visited the United Nations offices in New York City and had a guided tour through the facility. During the visit, I heard lectures on what the U.N. had been trying to accomplish. No one can doubt the value of an international center where nations can negotiate before wars begins. In addition, U.N. cultural and social departments have addressed and fought suffering around the world.

As the same time, the U.N. looks inept when it comes to stopping the collision of national interests that support on-going wars. The ultimate question about the viability of creating an organization with the power to impose its will on any state remains unanswered. Arguments abound for why world governments are not ready to accept such an international force. On the other hand, countries like Syria can continue wanton killing without fear of intervention. Good will and the desire for peace are abstractions that don’t stop killing. The quagmire remains. How can an international organization stop war when it lacks the cooperation of its members to support these efforts?

While the question goes unanswered, Bashar Assad’s government continues killing all who stand in their way. Is this anyway to run the world?

Question: What should America do to stop the crisis in Syria? Should troops be sent.

AND HOW’S IT GOING IN SYRIA?

            I find a heavy dose of adolescent repetitiousness about the Syrian situation. The world comes along like a big daddy and says, “Stop it! Stop the fighting!” Like an exposed 13year old, Bashar Assad and his brother Maher, the enforcer, respond, “Ah, gee. I’m sorry. We’ll stop.” As soon as dad is out of sight, the killing begins all over again.

It hasn’t stopped.

When a team of U.N. observers initially drove into a suburb of Damascus, protestors showed up. The U.N. team’s purpose was to monitor the shaky cease-fire. Their objective had been to pave the way for other U.N. personnel to arrive for reinforcement of the international community’s desire to bring an end to the 13 month deadly conflict in Syria.

Syrian troops responded by firing on the demonstrators.  At least eight people were wounded. Of course, the explosion of conflict the moment observers arrived could only make matters worse.

The United Nations has its hands full with the unwieldy violence that never ceases. Here’s another example. When the U.N. team made an unannounced visit to the Damascus suburb of Arbeen, a local activist said residents guessed they were coming because military tanks parked throughout Arbeen withdrew just before the U.N. teams arrival. Syria’s military haven’t stopped playing the “cat and mouse” game.

When the U.N. car arrived, local residents emerged waving signs and protesting the Assad regime. A local activist (his identity remains anonymous to protect the man from retribution)  reported hundreds of demonstrators crowded around three U.N. Land Cruisers shouting and protesting against the government. One local citizen standing in the back of a pickup led the crowd in singing, “Bashar, Bashar, we will not kneel.” Another handwritten sign taped to one of the cars read, “The murderer keeps killing, the observers keep observing, and the people keep up the revolution.” A video of the scene showed protesters walking down the boulevard and surrounding the car just as a boom exploded. Smoke filled the air and the UN vehicle sped away with the sirens blaring. After the U.N. team fled, government security cars drove through the area firing indiscriminately. An observer reported 20 people had been injured.

Reports of refugees fleeing in to Turkey report that Bashar Assad is attempting to stamp out as much resistance as possible before a U.N. brokered cease-fire is fully in place. In the villages of Taftanaz and Killi, a photograph given to the Associated Press by the resistance showed a dozen corpses wrapped in blankets sitting in a mass grave site in Taftanaz.

Because Syria borders five other nations and has close ties with Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, the country remains a vital geopolitical linchpin. Fighting jeopardizes each of these countries. Observers believe Assad continues to play for time. The battles continue.

Will they stop? Not soon.
Question: How can any government trust the Assad government again?