In a word … a mess!
With Egypt, Syria, and Iran fighting or getting ready to fight, the signs aren’t good. While Iran hasn’t made headlines lately, you can bet they haven’t slowed their pursuit of a weapon grade supply of enriched uranium. Only time will tell whether the Palestinian efforts to establish statehood at the United Nations will be of any value or only destroy further attempts at an agreement with Israel. At the least, turmoil will continue.
The situation in Egypt is not clear. Many who voted for the new constitution only did so in an attempt to establish stability. The turnout was meager. Even though the majority voted for the document, the opponents vow to continue opposing it. From the standpoint of constitutional government, the military has remained neutral while maintaining a stabilizing factor. However, concern for the future is clearly on the horizon. Egyptians remain deeply divided.
Secular-oriented representatives in the parliament have resigned in protest. They charge that the constitution will enshrine Shar’a law. Women’s rights as well as those of the Coptic Christians will be in trouble. The parliament which has a 75% radical Islamists majority will not back away from the imposition of Islamic law. While the United States provides an enormous funding for the Egyptian economy, it also supported the Mubarak regime. Good news; bad news.
We already have learned that radical Islamists do not pay attention to the difference the dollar can make. The truth is that the Muslim Brotherhood will interpret matters considerably differently from the former Western-oriented, anti-Islamists state. the United States had best prepare for a rocky road ahead.
An ominous sign was the order for arrest of opposition leaders to President Morsi’s government this past week. Internationally known Mohammed El-Baradei, a Nobel Peace laureate and former head of the U.N. nuclear agency, along with former Foreign Minister Amr Moussa are charged with undermining the legitimacy of Morsi. Such police state tactics reflect the Hosni Mubarak era. Moussa said, “if we accept the legitimacy of working within the system, they have to agree that the opposition is legitimate.” Egypt is far from out of the fire.
Hezbollah lost status because of the Syrian uprising. While the terrorist organization has been a dominating force in Lebanon, they are losing ground fast. When the Assad regime craters, there will be unsettling consequences for the entire region. Such conflict in Beirut has pushed Hezbollah to the side. After the fall of Assad, they will be diminished even further. The bottom line is that Hezbollah’s days of dominating Lebanon are numbered and the terrorist group can see the writing on the wall. Expect an explosive response.
Israel is caught in the middle of these clashes with anti-Israeli sentiments boiling in Egypt and Syrian. Every indicator says that an even more radical Islamic group is likely to gain power in Damascus. Meanwhile the Sunni’s and Shi’ites continue killing each other. This situation is somewhat like the Methodist and Baptist shooting rockets at each other’s churches because they don’t like the other’s missions program.
While the Obama administration has kept Israel from bombing the Iranian nuclear operation, that issue is from settled. More conflict will come soon. The next blog will address these issues.
Like I said … expect a mess. Stay tuned.
Dr. Robert L. Wise 