The amateur is quick to make assessments and projections about what comes next in the continuing struggle in the Middle East, but one must avoid being presumptive even after all the facts are in. The Arab world can change as fast as the spring winds reverse themselves. The better path is to maintain a continual watch for what happens next. Egypt is a prime example.
Interesting enough, the Egyptian military is forging a new alliance against Arab terrorist operating in the Sinai. The IDF (Israel Defense Force) and the Egyptian Army are together attempting to stop the terrorist attacks that are a problem for both countries. Perhaps, you will recall that Israel captured this entire area during the Yom Kippur war, but in a peace agreement with Egypt gave it back. It has since become a wild almost no-man’s land of bedouins firing rockets primarily at Israel.
As a result of the coup that brought Morsi down, violence against Egyptian security forces by Islamists has resulted in a deepening concern about attacks on Egypt. It is to the benefit of both countries to halt these assault. The new status of cooperation is an important sign for the future. It was generally recognized that Morsi, the deposed president, would eventually have abrogated the peace treaty with Israel. As it now stands, no one will have to face this problem.
As a matter of fact, renewed cooperation seems to be blossoming across the Middle East. Saudi Arabia and Egypt are developing better relationships. With the exception of Qatar, connections are improving with Egypt across the region. These same relationships have been through a roller-coaster ride during the past few years. Saudi Arabia was deeply shocked when 16 of the 18 perpetrators of the terrorist attack on the Twin Towers turned out to be from their country. They discovered that the Muslim Brotherhood had introduced Jihad and were raising young terrorist. As a result, the king expelled the Muslim Brotherhood in a way that both sides won’t forget.
On the other hand, Iran has been stung by the downfall of Morsi and further isolated. With tough Western sanctions strangling the country, their staunchest ally Bashar Assad is struggling to survive. When Assad called in Hezbollah, thousands of their best soldiers were killed. Even Hamas had to close its offices in Damascus. In Egypt, there has been a groundswell of support for non-Islamic movements. The bottom line is that the rise and fall of the Brotherhood will be a serious blow to Islamic terrorism and to Iran’s regional ambitions.
A year ago, Western interests had to be discouraged with what appeared to be ahead. At this point, the tides have turned and come back to shore. If we went back to the week after Morsi’s election, no one would have predicted that in a year, he’d be gone. But the winds shifted.
This past week Secretary of State John Kerry released a statement declaring the ouster was not a coup and money could keep coming from the USA to Egypt. Well, my, my, who would have thought America would wind with that position? Obviously, America is enthusiastic about the downfall of Morsi.
And so the story goes. Stay tuned. More on the 10:00 news.